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Extrapolation December 14, 2011

Posted by bobv451 in history, ideas, writing.

“It does not pay a prophet to be too specific.” That’s what L Sprague DeCamp said and it ought to be taken to heart by sf writers dealing with the future (or near future especially). I don’t know this for certain but have been told Jules Verne did not say the Nautilus was nuclear powered but rather run by the same power that the Sun uses. Vagueness (and maybe lousy translation done after the physics revolution of the early 1900s) made that “prediction” a winner.

So what’s the Middle East going to look like now that we’ve pulled out of Iraq? I think Israel has less to worry about right away than Saudi Arabia. The real fight will be between the Shia and the Sunni. Iraq was a buffer and protected the Saudi border. No longer now that we’re outta there. Yemen is in turmoil, thanks to Shia rebels. Syria continues to crush its revolt (likely Sunnis) with Iranian support. If Iran positions itself as the Middle Eastern power via the bomb and ICBMs, their first move will be into Iraq to isolate the Saudis along that border. The Emirates will come under great pressure to throw out the Sunnis and adopt the Shia leadership from Iran.

The choke points to watch are the Straits of Hormuz and the Gate of Tears. This will control 80% of the oil shipped out of the Middle East. It’ll be more “Arab Spring” especially in Yemen to gain control of the Gate of Tears.

Too bad we have abandoned nuclear power and told Canada to ship their oil to China.

There you are, gang. A scenario for a high tech/international thriller. Pretty general. Go for it.

Bizarro as prophet



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